Manna
Manna is mostly about machine intelligence replacing management-- it's easier to automate and doesn't require as much vision/dynamics/etc. breakthroughs, though we've made massive progress on those missing parts in the time since it was written. https://marshallbrain.com/manna
A gut punch for me. He was influential in many ways, as multiple comments here have already attested-- in particular the 'Manna' story that has been mentioned several times, which definitely knocked my socks off. Since no one else has brought it up yet, I want to say that one of his websites, "Why Won't God Heal Amputees" (https://whywontgodhealamputees.com/) was very important in my world. It may not exactly be the most highbrow philosophical or theological treatise you've ever encountered, but it crystallized several points I still consider hugely significant. For anyone raised by…
He was such an amazing guy. We got to interview him on our tiny podcast[1] after we reached out and he so happily joined us for half an hour. His book, Manna (which is $0.99 to download from Amazon[2] or free on his website[3]) is still one of the most fascinating and interesting visions of the future that I've come across (although I don't totally agree it's the only reasonable option). What a loss. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BA5v2cfJp1o [2] https://www.amazon.co.uk/Manna-Two-Visions-Humanitys-Future-... [3] https://marshallbrain.com/manna Edit: Fixed "free to download from…
Technological progress has always been inherently deflationary. Remember, the vast majority of the world's people used to work directly in food production as a matter of necessity. Technology has allowed most of us to get off the farm, and pursue other activities. Whereas a day's work once bought a day's food and not much more, a human worker (using the machines that serve him) is now able to produce a huge surplus of wealth. This means that there's time for leisure, and that our leisure can be much more enjoyable than our grandparents'. The tragedy of this seems to be that we're running…
The robots as most people might expect will not take over. The robots will be the software that will slowly start to replace knowledge workers or anyone who works with a computer. If you conduct your work on a computer someone is already planning to replace you with software. Think about that for a second. Incidentally also the knowledge workers are typically the higher income classes in a society. When their jobs start getting cut across the board where will they go? Releasing workers that used to work with computers in offices with no replacement jobs has only one direction and that is…
> short story "Manna" that is very prescient and outlines a few possible alternative futures for the man kind. Unfortunately personally I'm not very optimistic about a "good" outcome. Yeah, it's a good story and pretty thought-provoking, but it's kind of hilarious how quickly the quality nosedives once it switches to the "good" scenario. IMO you can tell he believed in the "bad" one a lot more and it feels like the good one was just shoehorned in to supply an optimistic option. Which is a bit scary...
Fiction, on the whole, or at least popular fiction is driven by drama and strife. Usually preventable drama and unnecessary strife, if only adults would "use their words". The real world is not as straightforward as fiction, and quite often more absurd. That said https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Category:Alleged_AI_risks Is a good place to start.
Interesting. Marshall Brain’s (RIP) Manna story had fast food restaurant management automated in this fashion, but I can see how customer service call centers fit the model quite well. We will probably see the “puppets” eliminated in 12-18 months when the voice models improve enough to be indistinguishable. Government is actually a surprising place to see this, since in theory they’re supposed to care about serving the citizens, as opposed to for instance, American health insurers, who in general would rather deflect and deny, which AI is perfect for.
Manna, yes! > We will probably see the “puppets” eliminated in 12-18 months when the voice models improve enough to be indistinguishable > Government is actually a surprising place to see this, since in theory they’re supposed to care about serving the citizens Well, it serves the citizens skilled only enough to work as puppets. The Govt. might say it also serves the users - cut cost per operator, increase number of operators, so reduce queue time. But then... Manna.
I cannot recommend Manna enough (I assume it's similar to the online version [1]). It portrays a version of the future that I believe is achievable by continuing open-source software development and extending it to (more and more powerful) AI. [1] http://www.marshallbrain.com/manna1.htm